The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has maintained its prediction for below-normal activity in the Atlantic hurricane basin as the season’s climatological peak approaches in early September.
Forecasters from NOAA’s National Weather Service updated their outlook to 7-13 named storms (winds of 39mph or greater) for the 2026 season, of which 2-6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74mph or greater), including 0-2 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). The ranges cover the full season from June 1 through November 30 and include the two tropical storms that have already formed.
NOAA forecasters predict a 75% chance of below-normal activity, a 20% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of above-normal activity, similar to the initial outlook issued in May. A typical Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
So far in 2026, the Atlantic has produced two named tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, and no hurricanes. Arthur, the season’s first named storm, formed in mid-June in the Gulf off the Texas coast, bringing record rainfall to Louisiana and spawning tornadoes along the Gulf coast. Bertha also formed in the Gulf, south of the Florida panhandle, before making landfall in St Bernard Parish, Louisiana.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said, “Inland rainfall is a major cause of damage from tropical storms and hurricanes, as Arthur demonstrated. That’s why it’s important to prepare for every storm that’s projected to impact your area, even if it never reaches hurricane strength.”
NOAA said Atlantic activity is expected to be tempered by El Niño conditions, which first emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June and increase wind shear, tending to prevent tropical storms from forming or strengthening. Other, less influential factors include near-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a neutral west African monsoon.
Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service, said, “When El Nino emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Nino continues to get stronger every month. Compared to a mature El Nino, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin.”
While El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic activity, it can enhance storm development in the Pacific: NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific remains unchanged at 15-22 named storms, above average, with an above-normal Central Pacific season of 5-13 named storms and tropical depressions also expected.
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