El Niño is continuing to intensify and is expected to strengthen into a strong event during August-October 2026, increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures worldwide and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates that multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centers expect seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies to exceed 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast to develop, which together with El Niño can amplify regional drought, flood and wildfire risk, particularly around the Indian Ocean basin. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than average.
The WMO noted that the term “super El Niño” is not part of its operational classification system – which instead ranks events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong – and is therefore not used in official WMO products.
UN secretary-general António Guterres said, “El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act. El Niño is strengthening – adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas. Fossil fuels are fanning the flames of this crisis. Expansion must stop.”
WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said, “El Niño is one of the most closely monitored climate phenomena in the world. But forecasts in themselves do not prevent hazards, people do. This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold.”
The August-October outlook points to an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas, with the strongest signals across Africa, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, the Indian subcontinent, eastern Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, southern Africa, much of South America and New Zealand.
Rainfall patterns show a classic strong El Niño footprint: wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, southern Europe, western North America south of 45°N, and southeastern South America. Drier-than-normal conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, southern Central America, the Caribbean, northwestern South America and northern Europe.
The WMO said it is intensifying its mobilization of climate information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimize El Niño’s impacts, with its full El Niño/La Niña Update due in early September.
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