El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has said.
The WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July-September 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centers show consistent, significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.
The WMO said forecast models show strong agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook, with El Niño expected to continue strengthening through the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements the WMO’s full El Niño/La Niña Update, issued June 2, and incorporates additional climate drivers such as the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions.
WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said, “El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.
“The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”
The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60°S and 60°N, covering nearly all populated regions outside the poles. In the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line, there is more than an 80% likelihood of above-normal sea surface temperatures, with above-normal temperatures also predicted for the Indian Ocean and tropical Atlantic. The North Atlantic is forecast to see a horseshoe-like pattern of below- to near-normal temperatures.
On rainfall, the July–September outlook points to above-normal rainfall across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and below-normal rainfall across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia. Equatorial Africa is expected to see an east-west contrast, with above-normal rainfall near the northern Gulf of Guinea and below-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa. Below-normal rainfall is also forecast for parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America, while the southwestern USA is likely to see wetter-than-average conditions. Europe is expected to see a north-south split, with forecast confidence lower than in other regions.
The WMO said it is intensifying briefings across the UN system and humanitarian partners, including a Coordination Mechanism Seasonal Climate Outlook briefing held on June 24, and is developing webinars and technical exchanges to strengthen regional preparedness.
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