Warming Mediterranean could lead to increase in extreme weather events

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The UK’s National Oceanography Centre (NOC) has warned that reduced heat loss in the Mediterranean Sea could have a knock-on effect on the atmosphere, potentially modifying weather patterns and leading to extreme weather events.

Simon Josey, professor of oceanography, NOC Marine Systems Modelling Group, worked with Dr Katrin Schroeder from the Institution of Marine Science in Italy, to analyze new atmospheric data models and found that the ocean surface in the North-West Mediterranean (NWMed) has lost less heat than normal in recent decades. This change reduces the movement of water from the upper ocean to the deep layers and has potential consequences for winter storms and summer heatwaves.

The study provides insight into the cause of the changes, showing that a warmer atmosphere is reducing the amount of heat the ocean is losing through its surface. The changes are strongest in the NWMed south of the French coast which is a key region for the Mediterranean circulation where the upper ocean water normally sinks to deep levels in winter.

Professor Josey said, “Air temperature has warmed more rapidly than ocean temperature which effectively puts an ‘extra blanket’ over the ocean stopping it from getting as cold as it used to and reducing the ability of waters to sink to the deeper layers. It is also possible that the reduced ocean heat loss will have a knock-on effect on the atmosphere, modifying weather patterns in the region and the occurrence of extreme events including severe winter storms.”

The study discovered that the air has warmed more quickly than the sea surface in the last 70 years in the NWMed but not in the Aegean Sea, pointing to regional differences in the way in which ocean-atmosphere interaction is changing. As a result, the NWMed is not losing as much heat as it used to, and the normal ocean circulation there has now become threatened. A further study is planned to explore the implications of this and to assess the impact it will have on overall weather and climate for people living in this region, including France, Italy, Spain and North Africa. This area has already become known as a climate change hotspot as witnessed by the major heatwave in the summer of 2022, which saw June temperatures of 40°C–43°C in parts of Europe, with France experiencing multiple record-breaking episodes.

Josey added, “We found that surface ocean heat loss has weakened, and that winter sinking is now occurring only about half as often as it did 40 years ago, indicating that the normal flow of water between the upper and deep ocean has been disrupted. This may well have consequences for the wider ocean circulation, and it is imperative that we investigate this further with a climate model-based study to determine the impacts and possible feedbacks on the atmosphere including winter storms and summer heatwaves.”

To read the full study, click here.

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, editor-in-chief

Dan first joined UKi Media & Events in 2014 having spent the early years of his career in the recruitment industry. As editor, he now produces content for Meteorological Technology International, unearthing the latest technological advances and research methods for the publication of each exciting new issue. When he’s not reporting on the latest meteorological news, Dan can be found on the golf course or apprehensively planning his next DIY project.

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