To improve the consistency of near-term precipitation projections for the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau (QP) and certainties of climate models, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences researchers have analyzed and adjusted the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase transition in simulation members.
Improving precipitation projections
The study, published in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, addressed precipitation patterns in this region due to the area’s water resource management and climate adaptation. The researchers analyzed near-term (2026-2055) precipitation projections for the QP using 100 ensemble members from the MPI-ESM climate model.
“By aligning the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase transitions across the ensemble members, we were able to increase the consistency of our projections from 50% to 70% and 55% for positive and negative Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase transitions, respectively,” said Dr Yin Zhao, lead author of the study.
Findings
The team found that while the QP is expected to experience an overall wetting trend, there is considerable uncertainty in precipitation trends across the southern QP.
“Accurate simulation of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase transitions is critical for improving near-term precipitation projections. The southern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau exhibits a complex east-west dipole pattern in precipitation changes, which is strongly influenced by the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation,” explained Prof. Jian Li, the corresponding author of the study. “A positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation phase transition tends to enhance precipitation in the eastern part of the southern QP while suppressing it in the western part, and a negative phase transition has the opposite effect.”
In related news, researchers at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) recently developed a model that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to convert low-resolution global weather data into high-resolution precipitation maps. Read the full story here.