An ongoing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean is intensifying and could become the strongest in 150 years, according to the National Climate Centre (NCC) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).
NCC monitoring shows the central-eastern equatorial Pacific met El Niño criteria in May, with sea-surface temperatures continuing to warm through June. By July, the event had entered the ‘strong’ category, and the likelihood of a super El Niño developing is increasing. The event is expected to last at least until next spring, with a total duration close to the historical average of 10-11 months.
El Niño acts as a global climate amplifier, altering the probability of extreme weather such as heat waves, droughts and torrential rain. A strong event reshapes atmospheric circulation patterns through teleconnections and ocean-atmosphere interactions, shifting seasonal climate probability distributions across different regions.
Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the NCC, said historical data show El Niño affects China differently across its onset, development, peak and decay phases. During the development summer, the western North Pacific tends to generate more typhoons that are stronger, form farther southeast and make landfall with greater intensity, bringing heavier wind and rain to southeastern and southern coastal areas, with a higher chance of northward-moving typhoons. In autumn and winter, when El Niño peaks, southern China typically experiences significantly above-average rainfall. During the decay phase in spring and summer, the Yangtze River basin and areas south of the Yangtze face elevated flood risks.
Separately, the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) annual Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update indicates that global average temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are very likely to remain near or at record-high levels, raising the possibility that 2027 could become the warmest year on record globally.
Chen added that, based on historical data and expert analysis, the global climate impacts of a strong El Niño often peak in the year following the event, since the ocean’s influence on the atmosphere is delayed and typically becomes fully apparent six months to a year after the event peaks.
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