There is a 55% chance of weak La Niña conditions affecting weather and climate patterns over the next three months, according to the WMO.
However, while such conditions have a temporary cooling effect on global average temperatures, many regions are still expected to be warmer than normal.
The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction show that since mid-November 2025, oceanic and atmospheric conditions have revealed borderline La Niña conditions, with a 55% probability of crossing La Niña thresholds during the December 2025 to February 2026 period.
For the periods January-March and February-April next year, the likelihood of returning to ENSO-neutral conditions gradually rises from about 65% to 75%. There is little likelihood of an El Niño – which typically has opposite impacts.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport. They are also a key component of WMO’s contribution to support humanitarian operations. This climate intelligence helps us to avert millions of dollars in economic losses and to save countless lives,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.
National meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) will closely monitor conditions over the coming months to help inform decision-makers.
The WMO says naturally occurring large-scale climate events such as La Niña and El Niño are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbating extreme weather and climate events, and affecting seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
To provide a more comprehensive climate outlook, WMO also issues regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates (GSCU). These consider the influence of key climate variability patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. The updates also monitor the global and regional anomalies of surface temperature and precipitation and their evolution over the upcoming season.
The latest update says that for December 2025 to February 2026, temperatures are expected to be above normal in much of the Northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere. Rainfall predictions resemble conditions typically observed during a weak La Niña.
In related news, WMO calls for global collaboration on development of AI and machine learning for monitoring and prediction
