The recent weak La Niña event is expected to fade into ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months, with an increasing possibility of a shift toward El Niño later this year, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
WMO Global Producing Centre forecasts indicate a 60% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions – neither El Niño nor La Niña – during March-May 2026, rising to 70% during April-June. For May-July, the likelihood of neutral conditions is estimated at 60%, while the probability of El Niño increases to around 40%.
Forecast uncertainty increases at longer lead times. Predictions issued at this time of year are generally less reliable because of the boreal spring predictability barrier, a well-documented limitation affecting ENSO outlooks.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making. The most recent El Niño, in 2023–24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña help us avert millions of dollars in economic losses and are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water management. They are also a key part of the climate intelligence provided by WMO to support humanitarian operations and disaster risk management, and thus save lives,” she said.
WMO noted that naturally occurring climate events such as El Niño and La Niña are taking place in the broader context of human-induced climate change, which is contributing to long-term global temperature increases and intensifying extreme weather and climate events.
For March to May 2026, the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a widespread signal for above-average land surface temperatures globally. Rainfall forecasts in the equatorial Pacific show a lingering La Niña-like pattern, while signals in other regions are more mixed.
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