Global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, with temperature anomalies in the Arctic continuing to be higher than the global mean, according to a new report produced by the UK Met Office on behalf of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The Global Annual-to-Decadel Update also takes climate observations over the last five years to give regional predictions for temperatures and precipitation over the next five years.
Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, according to the update.
It is very likely (91% chance) that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030. This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the global average surface temperature was about 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
It is likely (75% chance) that the 2026-2030 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. However, it is considered exceptionally unlikely (less than 1%) that any single year will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average in the next five years.
The report also says that the five-year predicted average temperature in the central tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) indicates a tendency toward El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
Dr Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said, “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.”
The update is produced by the UK’s Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It provides a synthesis of predictions contributed by 13 institutes, including four Global Producing Centres: Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst and the Met Office.
It is said that confidence in forecasts of annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature is high since hindcasts have previously shown a high degree of accuracy.
Other key findings include northern hemisphere winters predicted to be 2.8°C above average temperatures for 1991-2020. Furthermore, predictions of Arctic sea ice for March 2026-2035 suggest further reductions in concentration in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.
Precipitation predictions favor wetter-than-average conditions at high latitudes in the northern hemisphere for the next five extended winter seasons (November to March). Predicted precipitation patterns for May-September 2026-2030 suggest that wet anomalies in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, and dry anomalies over the Amazon, are more likely in this season.
The forecasts are intended as guidance for regional climate centers, regional climate outlook forums and national meteorological and hydrological services. The accuracy of interannual to decadal forecasts is different from that of weather and seasonal timescales and may vary considerably with region and season.
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