The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated a growing likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop from mid-2026, with potential impacts on global temperature and rainfall patterns.
According to the agency’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising, pointing to a possible return of El Niño as early as May-July 2026. Forecasts suggest a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” during the upcoming three-month period.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia, chief of climate prediction at the WMO, said, “After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow.”
He added that uncertainty remains due to the “spring predictability barrier,” a known limitation in forecasting at this time of year, though confidence typically improves after April.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), a major climate pattern that influences weather worldwide. It is characterized by warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific and typically occurs every two to seven years.
The phenomenon is associated with widespread impacts, including shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns. It often brings increased rainfall to parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while contributing to drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
El Niño events also tend to have a warming effect on global temperatures. The WMO noted that the combination of the 2023-2024 El Niño and human-induced climate change contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record.
While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, it can amplify their impacts by increasing atmospheric energy and moisture, leading to more extreme weather such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
The WMO said most forecast models indicate ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through boreal spring, before El Niño develops during the summer and potentially continues into the end of the year.
Seasonal forecasts are used by governments and sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy and health to guide preparedness and risk response. The WMO will issue its next El Niño/La Niña update in late May, providing further guidance for the June-August period.
In related news, Extreme heat posing significant risks to ecosystems and agriculture, FAO-WMO report warns