Researchers at Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology have been awarded a Eureka Prize for their work in developing operational long-range marine heatwave forecasts.
The five-year project, which was conducted by seasonal and marine applications team leader Dr Claire Spillman and senior research scientist Dr Grant Smith, together with Dr Alistair Hobday and Jason Hartog from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), led to new operational forecasts to support smarter decision-making as marine heatwaves affect ecosystems, fisheries and coastal communities.
“This project represents a genuinely collaborative, integrated and multidisciplinary achievement between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology,” said Dr Spillman about the research titled Marine heatwave forecasting to inform decision making in a warming ocean.
“Together the team co-designed the research, co-authored papers and industry publications, co-presented national climate briefings, conducted stakeholder workshops, tested product prototypes with end users, and jointly developed public-facing products that underpin Australia’s first operational long-range marine heatwave forecast service.”
According to Dr Smith, the research culminated in December 2025 with the launch of operational long-range marine heatwave forecasts for Australia. “The forecasts show the likelihood, location and predicted severity of marine heatwaves in the Australian region up to four months ahead,” he explained.
“The award is fantastic recognition for research that is being recognized internationally with agencies in New Zealand, the UK Met Office and Singapore expressing interest in adopting similar approaches,” he added. “The work has also been profiled by the World Meteorological Organization, included in Australia’s State of the Climate reporting and in the journal Science.”
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