El Niño is firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization published September 3.
Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate a near-100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027. The organization says this is the first time the El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal. The event is expected to peak toward the end of 2026, with impacts continuing into 2027.
Sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, measured by the Niño 3.4 index, rose from an average of 1.5°C above normal in May-July 2026 to between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average by mid-August. Subsurface ocean temperatures in some areas were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
WMO secretary-general Celeste Saudo said, “El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”
She added, “This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with national meteorological and hydrological services, who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.”
For September-November 2026, WMO’s multimodel forecasts point to an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns reflecting a classic Pacific El Niño response. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase is also expected to develop, alongside generally warm conditions in the equatorial Atlantic, both of which could reinforce or alter typical El Niño impacts by region.
WMO noted that El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and not caused by climate change.
In related news, WMO: Strong El Niño set to intensify through October