Solar activity appears to be entering a declining phase following a solar maximum in 2024 and 2025, according to the UK Met Office. The change is part of the sun’s regular 11-year solar cycle, which moves from one solar maximum to the next.
Although the number of sunspots on the sun’s surface is now showing a downward trend, the Met Office said this phase does not signal an end to impactful space weather. Recent aurora sightings as far south as northern Italy highlight that significant solar events can still occur during the decline.
Solar activity drives space weather, which is monitored and forecast by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) to help critical sectors manage potential impacts from severe events. The solar cycle is primarily measured by tracking visible sunspots on the sun’s surface.
Data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that sunspot activity is decreasing, as expected following solar maximum. However, the Met Office said this does not remove the risk of further major space weather events in the months ahead.
“The sun’s overall activity may be in a declining phase, but our vigilance for severe space weather certainly isn’t,” said Krista Hammond, space weather manager at the Met Office. “While the total number of sunspots appears to be on the wane, as expected, it’s important to note that we have observed in the past the strongest and most significant space weather events after solar maximum has occurred.”
Hammond added that there remains an ongoing chance of further significant space weather, including aurora sightings, with a wider window for visibility during the darker winter months.
The Met Office said the current solar cycle has been more active than the previous one, with a more pronounced solar maximum. It is the largest solar maximum observed since MOSWOC was established in 2014, although it is not considered exceptional by historical standards.
“Historically, it has been a relatively typical solar cycle so far, with some notable one-off events, like in May 2024, which brought auroras to southern parts of the UK,” Hammond said. She added that the event provided an opportunity to test communications and alerts to key industries.
MOSWOC continues to collaborate with UK and international partners on space weather forecasting and research. Recent developments include the collection of radiation data in Earth’s lower atmosphere in November 2025, and the launch of a new space weather modeling suite to support operational modeling of the upper atmosphere.
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